Thousands dead, Lakhs homeless and the Democracy endangered! The crisis of civilization in Iraq is presenting this horrible picture in front of the global arena. ISIS (Islamic State of Iraq and Al-Sham), a Sunni militant organization captured more than 1/4thof the land in Iraq that included Mosul, the second largest city. With this offense conducted by this Sunni Extremist group against the Shia lead government under Nauri-Al-Maliki, the ghost of sectarian battle is once again resurrected in the region. With United States merely acting as a spectator the options left with Iraqi government are not so hopeful. Though what initiated this mayhem in Iraq is believed to be the very policies of Uncle Sam. With various factors running parallel to each other let us try to examine this multi-dimensional structure of Iraq Crisis.
Before analyzing the present situation we must look into the historical concept of Iraq’s socio-political problems. Having around 60% of the total population as Shia and 35% as Sunni, Iraq has been the controversial theatre of sectarian clashes. Since decades up till 2003 it was ruled by Saddam Hussein, a Sunni Leader of Ba’ath Party who was forcefully dethroned during the US lead NATO intervention under the pretext of possessing ‘Weapons of Mass destruction’ in Iraq. Saddam, an effective and able ruler was having the skills to maintain the peace and unity between Shia and Sunni, though not voluntarily but by force. Through his rough policies and their ruthless implementation the Iraq under Saddam was far much disciplined and organized than todays. With the attack of US lead NATO, law and order of the state went into the hands of Anarchist tribal forces and other violent non-state actors. One of them was the ISIL (Islamic State of Iraq and Levant). ISIL, the Sunni lead militia aimed at unifying and consolidating Sunni majority parts of Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and Palestine under the head of one Islamic State and that is to be ruled by strict Sharia Laws. In its initial days it was under the influence of Al-Qaida. But it broke away in early 2014from its parent organization alleging it to be too moderate. ISIS (also known as ISIL) is today considered to be one of the ruthless terrorist militias on the globe. With an impetus to existence provided by the ‘2003 US invasion of Iraq’, ISIS gained power and warfare logistics during 2011- 12 while fighting against the Assad regime in Syria. US through the channel of Saudi Arabia and Qatar supplied the arms and financial aids to anti Assad militias of whom this ISIS was a part. As a result we may find a new Taliban raising its head with parts of North East Syria and Western Iraq under its influence. We must be affirmative on the role of West and especially US in strengthening the position of ISIS by providing it the arms during its struggle against Syria. The problem lies in the fact that with the growth of power ISIS confirmed its conviction of an Islamic state which transformed a small group to a large militia.It seems as if the mistakes have been repeated. And the credit goes to Uncle Sam.
But this cannot be the complete reason of this crisis in Iraq. US before leaving Iraq in 2011 stalled a Shia lead government under Nauri-Al-Maliki. Maliki’s rule in Iraq is marked by his complete disregard to Sunni population and their aspirations. There have been cases of Shia generals accused of committing Sunni atrocities. But Maliki overlooked the misery of these 35% which promoted the sectarian divide in Iraq. Further, his discriminatory policy of awarding all posts from administration to governance in the hands of Shias alienated the Sunni population which transformed itself into an anti-government actor. With ISIS in picture today these alienated Sunnis have adored them as their leader. With this support of Local Sunnis ISIS consisting of around 1500 militants captured the parts of Iraq where thousands of Iraqi soldiers were deployed. This may be the result of the co-ordination of local Sunni population which might have increased the power of ISIS.
Speculations of US intervention in Iraq were denied recently by the US President Barack Obama.He cleared the stance of not deploying the American troops again in Iraq. Although he dispatched the team of 300 warfare advisors to Iraq communicating that the government of Iraq must save its democratic ideals with its own defense mechanisms but its role will still be crucial. And the situation here seems very tricky. Fighters of ISIS are fighting from the American arms (which they got from them to fight against Assad in Syria) whereas the Iraqi army is dependent on the same too! With American Arms capitalists earning dollars from this mayhem we may understand the role of US and its complex involvement in this crisis. But there is one more interesting angle. We must not forget that ISIS is getting its support from the state of Saudi Arabia as an attempt to decrease the influence of Shia Iran over middle-East. Let us try to define this complex equation. ISIS is getting its support from Saudi Arabia which in turn is the radical ally of US. Keeping this equation in mind let us jump on the other to get the perfect picture in place. As America itself installed the Shia lead government in Iraqwe may consider it to be the agent of American interests. With this we can find that America is having its allies on both the sides of the game. This might be the reason why US is still not able to take a strict stance on any of the belligerents involved in this crisis. It would be a test for Uncle Sam and his imperialist aspirations. On the other side of the game stands Iran. Being the Shia majority state it has openly announced its support to Shia government in Iraq in order to save the major Shia shrines of Karbala and Nazaf. Any action of Iran would be a decisive one even if US maintains its neutrality over the issue.
With all this mathematics of Iraq Crisis analyzed let us find the thread which takes India near to it. According to reports around 40 Indians are stuck in Mosul which is completely under the control of ISIS militia. Bringing them back to India safely is the challenge for the Indian government. Around 18,000 Indians working in Iraq are living in fear and insecurity which must be kept in mind while observing any future development of this crisis. Up till then we have to look for some more equations in Iraq. Prices of Crude Oil will inflate dramatically if the southern Iraq constituting of Basra oil Wells meets the same fate as of Mosul. Some questions will be answered in the near future. Will US be sacrificing its alliance with Saudi Arabia? Or will Saudi Arabia be dropping its support to ISIS? Will Iran be joining hands with its historical enemy known as United States in orderto face ISIS? Or will Iraq disintegrate in case none comes to its rescue? No matter what happens, the American arms industries would show the profits in their balance sheets.